Understanding China, One Blog at a Time

An American in China

Poetic Words on China’s Soon to Fail Economy

Posted by w_thames_the_d on November 22, 2011


From the Big Brewskie
“Something the optimists keep missing is this isn’t just about China. The toilet swirl you hear roaring next door is driven by two other titans – the euro, and a (soon to be) doubler-dipper US. I’ve been guessing China may be jessst a little late to the global downturn; however, do you expect China, who’s dependent the two’s teets to nurse the export machination, to hum harmoniously while her two biggest customers get sick? Are her consumers, other than a relative minority (60-70 million people) picking up the slack? Hell no.

And the assumption China’s going to spin the hamster wheel GDP wheel at 8%+ RPMs for 20 more years is ridiculous. No country’s maintained this kind of growth for 50 years; China won’t be the first.

And besides. Andy Xie’s starting to sound the bell. Now unexpectedly out of Andy, he’s more optimistic of China’s economy than expected, and think the downturn will be short-lived; he must be losing his touch with age like George Lucas. Or he hasn’t spent enough time inside China’s sick economic machinations to understand how fucked up her kettle of swill is.

Here’s a bet: Let Xie nest in a new high-price condo for a few years, and he’ll hit an epiphany that his condo, is, a microcosm of everything that’s wrong in China. He’ll write about the one moment that jacked the “mental suppository” hard in his head: when his toilet got sick again, and vomited crap in his face when a neighbor flushed theirs.

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