Understanding China, One Blog at a Time

An American in China

Chinese Economic Data Built on Lies

Posted by w_thames_the_d on August 15, 2013

China lies so much about its economic data that number 2 chicom thug, Li Keqiang said that nobody believes the figures. I guess he meant to say, nobody but stupid foreigners.

In any event, the guy below has the Chinese economy all dialed in.


China’s economy could be $1 trillion smaller than it says.


Christopher Balding, a professor at Peking University, lays out the case in a new working paper that finds some very strange patterns in China’s official statistics, which have long been viewed with skepticism. He believes the government manipulated housing price data between 2000 and 2011 to produce lower inflation results. Balding makes four key observations:


1. Why doesn’t the housing price data reflect China’s massive migration? In the last two decades, the country experienced a major migration from the rural interior to coastal cities. But the country’s official statistics show rural home prices growing three times as fast as urban home prices between 2000 and 2011. Balding is skeptical that home prices in urban areas grew so much more slowly, especially when private measures show housing prices in Chinese cities increasing much faster.

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